| The following Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) reports were released on Thursday, April 29, 2021.
Argentine sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2021-2022 is forecast down at 1.55 million tons, raw value, due to early season dryness which is expected to negatively impact yields. The domestic use of sugarcane for ethanol is expected to grow. Sugar exports are projected at 220,000 tons, raw value, 8 percent lower than last year on smaller sugar supply.
Australia: Grain and Feed Annual Another big production year for Australian grains is forecast in marketing year (MY) 2021/22 after a strong drought-recovery year in MY 2020/21. Wheat production is forecast at 27 million metric tons (MMT) in MY 2021/22 and barley at 10 MMT, both down from the huge crops in the previous year. Although overall grain area is expected to be large, yields are forecast to fall to more typical levels from last year's record barley, and near record wheat, yields. Wheat exports are set to decline to 19 MMT in the forecast year from a historically high volume estimated at 23 MMT in MY 2020/21. Similarly, barley exports are forecast to reduce to 4.5 MMT from 7 MMT. Sorghum production is forecast to decline slightly in MY 2021/22 to 1.4 MMT after a strong rebound in MY 2020/21. Rice production is forecast to continue its recovery from the drought and rise to 440,000 metric tons (MT) (milled basis) in MY 2021/22 and Australia is set to shift back to being a net exporter of rice.
Bulgaria: 2020 Direct Versus Indirect Trade -- Bulgaria's Hidden Market for US Ag Exports The U.S. Census Bureau's bulk, intermediate, and consumer-oriented (BICO) export data tracks U.S. food and agricultural trade shipped directly to Bulgaria. However, it does not measure the substantial levels of the U.S. agricultural trade to Bulgaria routed through Western European ports of entry. According to BICO, U.S. suppliers shipped $27 million of U.S. food and agriculture to Bulgaria in 2020. However, according to Bulgaria's National Statistical Institute (NSI), which measures trade by country of origin and therefore reflects both direct and indirect trade, Bulgaria sourced $74 million of U.S. food and agriculture in 2020. FAS Sofia encourages USDA cooperators and other U.S. food and agricultural exporters and stakeholders to look beyond BICO data and review different data sources when considering resource allocation and market development strategies for Bulgaria.
China: Delayed Expansion in Chinese Swine Herd Swine numbers are not likely to rebound until at least mid-2021 if the current African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak is brought under control. In late 2020 a resurgence of ASF reduced China's population of breeding sows and piglets. These losses continued through the first quarter of 2021 as ASF outbreaks were reported in multiple provinces.
On April 13, 2021, the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) notified provisions for licensing and registration of fortified food products in its Food Safety and Compliance System (FOSCOS). Earlier on December 18, 2020, the FSSAI notified the Food Safety and Standards (Fortification of Foods) First Amendment Regulations (2020), relating to standards for fortified processed foods. The implementation of this regulation commences July 1, 2021. This GAIN FAIRS report includes a copy of the FSSAI notification, as well as provides a link to instructions for obtaining +F endorsement certification.
India: FSSAI Modifies Standards for Shea Butter and Borneo Tallow Nut Oil On March 22, 2021, the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) modified its food safety and standards related to Shea butter and Borneo tallow nut oil (or Sal nut oil). Revisions relating to peanut butter are inserted as clauses 12 and 13 in Regulation 2.2, sub-regulation 2.2.4-Edible Fats. The implementation date is effective commencing with the date of publication in the Gazette of India. This GAIN FAIRS report provides a hyperlink to the FSSAI notification.
India: FSSAI Publishes Draft Standard Operating Procedures for fixation of pesticides MRLs On April 9, 2021, the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) published a draft guidance document – Standard Operating Procedures to Fix Maximum Residue Levels (MRLs) for Pesticides. This guidance document has not been notified to World Trade Organization (WTO) member countries for comments. However, the FSSAI is inviting comments from interested stakeholders within sixty days from the date of publication of the draft document on its website. This GAIN FAIRS report provides contact information for stakeholder comment submission, as well as a hyperlink to the draft guidance document – Standard Operating Procedures to Fix Maximum Residue Levels (MRLs) for Pesticides.
South Korea: COVID-19 Impact on Food Market Trends in Korea COVID-19 has shaped food trends in South Korea. Online food sales grew by 46 percent in 2020 to $17 billion. Spending on home meal replacement kits and wine increased as people ate and drank more at home. The restaurant industry suffered as eating in restaurants decreased by 7.5 percent.
Turkey: Turkey Removes the Anti-dumping Duty on US Cotton On April 16, 2021, the Government of Turkey (GoT) removed the three percent anti-dumping duty on U.S. cotton. GoT imposed this duty on U.S. cotton imports in 2016 for five years after the conclusion of their anti-dumping investigation. Industry sources expect a slight increase in market share for U.S. cotton in the Turkish market because of the removal of the duty.
In MY 2021/22, Venezuelan sugar production is projected upwards to 190,000 MT. The dollarization of the economy has also been implemented in the sugar sector. Dollar payments instead of devalued bolivars, to both producers and industry, have created a motivation to produce more sugar, despite challenges from diesel shortage and adverse weather conditions. Brazil continues to be the main supplier of sugar to Venezuela. The regime's decision to prioritize imports of raw sugar over refined sugar, and to allow the private sector to import will boost sugar imports in MY 2020/21 and it is expected to maintain in MY 2021/22. In MY 2021/22, FAS Caracas forecast a 73 percent increase in domestic consumption to 510,000 MT driven by increasing production and imports.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.
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