| The following Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) reports were released on Tuesday, April 20, 2021.
Argentina: Oilseeds and Products Annual Post projects an increase of 100,000 hectares in soybean planted area and production of 51.5 million tons for marketing year 2021/2022. Sunflowerseed acreage expected to recover to 1.7 million hectares. 2019/2020 soybean estimated production is reduced to 45 million on prolonged dry conditions in northwestern Bueno Aires and Entre Rios Provinces. 2019/2020 soybean projected exports are reduced to 5.5 million tons on competition from Brazil and strong local crush demand.
Brazil's Marketing Year (MY) 2021/22 sugarcane crop is estimated at 635 million metric tons (mmt), a decrease of three percent compared to the final estimate for MY 2020/21 (657 mmt). The dry weather that prevailed between August and October 2020 damaged sugarcane fields, thus reducing production potential. Fire outbreaks also harmed cane stocks. Sugar prices have recovered since March 2020 and have remained much more attractive than ethanol prices. Therefore, sugar-ethanol plants should remain focusing on sugar production, and the sugar-ethanol production mix will likely be similar to the previous season. The revised estimate for Brazilian exports in MY 2020/21 is 32.15 mmt, raw value, the largest volume exported by Brazil, representing roughly 50 percent of the world exports. As the second-largest recipient of the U.S. sugar tariff-rate quota, Brazil held a raw value allocation of 152,691 metric tons at the beginning of FY 2021.
China: Overseas Facilities Registration Regulation - Decree 248 The Regulations on the Registration and Administration of Overseas Producers of Imported Food (Degree 248) will enter into force on January 1, 2022. Once implemented, the measure will require that all overseas food manufacturers, processors, and storage facilities be registered with the Chinese authorities to export product to China. The measure covers all food products except food additives. Depending on the product category, food producers must register with the General Administration of Customs of China either a) through the competent authority of the exporting country or b) directly and/or through a private agent. This report provides an unofficial translation of Decree 248.
Colombia: FAS Secures the Release of Shipment of Dried Egg Thanks to FAS Bogota's engagement with Colombian port authorities and coordination with USDA agencies, Colombia's local food safety authority released a $80,000 Shipment of U.S. dried egg, which had been detained due to labeling concerns.
In marketing year (MY) 2021/22, Colombian raw sugar production is forecast to recover to 2.4 million metric tons (MT), after an expected decline in MY 2020/21 due to excessive rains from La Niña weather phenomena. Colombian sugar consumption continues to increase, in parallel with the population growth rate; however, COVID-19 containment measures have impacted consumption patterns. In MY 2021/22, sugar exports are forecast to increase to 770,000 MT, due to the recovery in production and local consumption increasing at a slower pace. Colombian sugar imports are forecast to decrease 10 percent in MY 2021/22 because of higher production levels.
Cote d'Ivoire: Grain and Feed Annual Despite ambitious national targets towards self-sufficiency in rice by 2025, and becoming a regional exporter by 2030, the current campaign in Côte d'Ivoire is one characterized by a production drop and trade slowdown, which has tightened overall supply in the country. Milled rice production for upcoming market year (MY) 2021/22 is projected at 1.2 million metric tons (MMT). Post projects MY 2021/22 imports at 1.1 MMT, which indicates a continued stabilization of import pace for a country that has consistently been a global top-five importer in recent years. The Port of Abidjan remains a significant transshipment point for milled rice to other markets in the region. Domestic production struggles and softening milled rice imports open up opportunities for U.S. rough rice exports to supplement an expanding domestic milling sector.
European Union: Oilseeds and Products Annual Total EU oilseeds area in MY 2021/22 is forecast to marginally increase by almost one percent. This increase in planted area is expected to take place in all three major oilseeds: soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower. Oilseed production is forecast up six percent from the previous year due to expected higher than average yields and increased acreage. NOTE: The estimates and forecasts in this report could change as a result of different government measures put in place to control the spread of COVID-19, including uncertainty in timing for the reopening of the food service and tourism sectors.
Guatemala: Grain and Feed Annual Guatemala is a net yellow corn importer, but white corn production is expected to grow 9 percent, forecasting 1.89 million metric tons (MT) in Marketing Year (MY) 2021/2022. Guatemala is a net rice importer. Recent satellite images resulting from the assessment of hurricanes Eta and Iota at the end of 2020 revealed a rice production area three times larger than the last official estimate (which had only considered commercial production) reaching 13,000 hectares (Ha) with 75 percent of the producers being subsistence farmers (less than 2 Ha), small and extremely poor. Prices at retail and wholesale for both grains reached record highs during the March-August period of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Assuming normal rainfall and favorable weather conditions, India's centrifugal sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2021/22 (October-September) is forecast to grow three percent to 34.7 million metric tons (MMT) (equivalent to 31.8 MMT of crystal white sugar) on a sugarcane production forecast of 389 MMT. Uttar Pradesh will continue to be the largest sugar producing state, followed by Maharashtra and Karnataka. India will retain its existing export policy that will enable subsidized exports at six MMT. Consumption is forecast to rise two percent to 28.5 MMT, as the economy recovers from the pandemic. Closing stocks are estimated at 16.5 MMT and expected to further decline as India diverts more sugar toward ethanol production to meet its domestic blending mandate.
Higher rainfall as a result of a La Nina weather pattern is expected to increase sugarcane yields, leading to increased production in 2021/2022. Total imports are forecast to decline on higher domestic production. In an effort to reduce and stabilize retail prices, the Government of Indonesia (GOI) has issued permits to import 680,000 tons of raw sugar for processing into plantation white sugar by mills.
Japan: Agriculture and Climate Change in Japan This report summarizes the Government of Japan's (GOJ) climate change targets, policy, research, and international engagement for the agricultural, forestry, and fisheries sectors. The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries is the lead GOJ ministry for addressing climate change in these industries. In 2018, agriculture contributed to 4 percent of Japan's total greenhouse gas emissions. The GOJ currently operates two carbon credit markets, one for domestically produced credits and another for credits produced bilaterally with international partners. Japan is not a significant producer or user of renewable biofuels, but the GOJ aims for biomass to account for 3.7 - 4.6 percent of electricity generation by 2030.
Kazakhstan: Grain and Feed Annual Planting strategy in Kazakhstan for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 is expected to be similar to the previous year. To date, climate conditions for the 2021/22 marketing year have been mixed. Farmers' spring planting decisions will be predominantly influenced by economic factors. Given these factors, FAS Nur-Sultan expects MY 2021/22 grain production to be consistent with MY 2020/21. Post continues to estimate MY 2020/21 production at approximately 13.2 million metric tons (MMT). Both domestic food and feed consumption remain stable, which means that any growth in wheat and barley production would likely translate into a growth in MY2021/22 exports.
Mexico sugar production for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 is forecasted slightly lower than MY 2020/21, on continued drought concerns and soil effects in some sugar producing states. However, an increase in planted area is expected due to government cash support to cane producers through the Production for Wellbeing Program. Consumption of both sugar and high fructose corn syrup is forecasted down in MY 2021/22 due to a new front of package labeling law and federal and state government health campaigns that are leading to product reformulation with lower sugar content or replacement with non-caloric sweeteners.
Nigeria: Grain and Feed Annual In 2021, Nigeria is expected to face decreases in grain supplies due to conflict and economic factors exacerbated by the secondary effects of COVID-19. Internal security across the country is a serious challenge to food production especially in the corn belt. Insecurity is rife across the country's leading agricultural states. Corn and sorghum production are forecast to decline while rough rice production is forecast to grow by 17% higher than MY 2020/21 due to farmers now cultivating two crops per year. Consumption of wheat and corn is forecast to increase - especially corn being a critically important source of feedstock. Rice consumption is forecast to drop by 1.5% largely due to increasing prices amid lowering consumer purchasing power and declining household incomes. The government is unlikely to change its forex policy to help increase wheat, soybean, and corn imports.
Post sees Crop Year (CY) 2021/2022 (September/August) raw sugar production staying flat at 2.1 million metric tons (MT), as low productivity remains an issue amid the continued discussion of trade liberalization. Sugar consumption in CY 2021/2022 is expected to rebound by 200,000 MT from the previous year, with households and institutions driving the recovery as COVID-19 restrictions are loosened. Consumption and imports in CY 2020/2021, on the other hand, are revised down from their previous forecasts by 300,000 MT and 175,000 MT, respectively, due to weaker demand following Philippine government efforts to combat the pandemic. Meanwhile, CY 2021/2022 imports are likely to reach 150,000 MT after dropping to 25,000 MT the prior year, as the economy reopens and beverage manufacturers expand production.
Post forecasts that the South African sugar cane crop will increase by 3 percent to 18.8 million Metric Tons (MT) in the 2021/22 MY, based on normal weather conditions, improvements in yields, and marginal increases in area planted. Post forecasts that raw sugar production will increase by 3 percent to 2.2 million MT in the 2021/22 MY, based on the increase in quantity of cane delivered to the mills, a longer milling season, and consistent mill efficiencies (sugar recovery rate). South Africa is expected to fully utilize the United States Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) allocation in the 2021/22 MY. The industry has been able to successfully increase domestic demand by 150,000 MT in the 2020/21 MY, partly due to the recently introduced Sugar Master Plan and the surge in demand for home consumption during the COVID-19 lockdowns.
United Kingdom: Grain and Feed Annual After a 40-year low in marketing year MY2020/21, UK production of wheat is forecast to rise sharply in MY2021/22, at the expense of spring barley, following much more favorable year-on-year fall planting conditions. This will mean feed use of barley and the import of corn for use in the biofuels sector will both decline in MY2021/22 following their spike in MY2020/21. Indeed, MY2020/21 should be considered an outlier year, not just because of the weather but also because of the uncertainty of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. With the UK having now completed its departure from the EU, growers and traders alike are making more informed decisions ahead of MY2021/22, albeit COVID-19 could continue to play its part on the demand side.
United Kingdom: Food Processing Ingredients Food and drink production is the UK's largest manufacturing sector. Despite COVID-19 and Brexit, the UK consumer still demands products containing ingredients that cannot be sourced entirely in the UK. The UK relies on imports in order to fulfill the demand for such ingredients. Health and wellbeing are key trends driving the market as the demand for plant-based and 'clean eating' products increase. Many opportunities therefore exist in all sectors of the ingredients market. UK industry standards tend to focus on strict animal welfare, high technical specifications, traceability, and very competitive pricing. Data for 2019 (latest available) shows the manufacture of food products in the UK decreased by $1.2 billion from the previous year to $100.3 billion. The decline was attributed to falling sales of cakes and pastries as well as prepared meals, as a result of consumers being more health conscious. Post anticipates sales of these products to recover and grow in 2021 and onwards
United Kingdom: Oilseeds and Products Annual MY2021/22 is characterized by a further reduction in rapeseed production. Total United Kingdom (UK) rapeseed area in MY2021/22 is forecast to decline by 17 percent, primarily due to uncertainty over crop performance. Demand for oilseed meals for livestock feed use is expected to remain at current levels. The reopening of hospitality post COVID-19 is expected to increase the share of oil in food consumption. MY2020/21 should be considered an outlier year, not just because of the weather but also because of the uncertainty of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. With the UK having now completed its departure from the EU, growers and traders alike are making more informed decisions ahead of MY2021/22, albeit COVID-19 could continue to play its part on the demand side.
Post forecasts that sugar cane production in Zimbabwe will increase by 2 percent to 3.6 million Metric Tons (MT) in the 2021/22 Marketing Year (MY), based on normal weather conditions, availability of sufficient irrigation water, and an increase in area planted. Post forecasts that sugar production will increase by 1 percent to 415,000 MT in the 2021/22 MY, based on an increase in the quantity of sugar cane delivered to the mills, improved sugar cane quality (sucrose content), and constant sugar mill efficiencies (sugar recovery rate). Zimbabwe is expected to fully utilize the 2021/22 MY and 2020/21 MY United States Tariff Rate Quota allocation of 12,636 MT annually.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.
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