The following Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) reports were released on Wednesday, April 21, 2021.
Post forecasts China's marketing year (MY)21/22 corn imports at 15 million metric tons (MMT) as market signals are encouraging additional domestic production over MY20/21 levels. Post estimates MY20/21 corn imports at a record 28 MMT. The increase from past estimates is due to continued feed demand and a supply deficit that supports restocking of reserves. China's MY21/22 total feed and residual use are forecast to increase by 17 MMT, a 6.7 percent increase over MY20/21. Corn prices remain high and commercially held corn stocks are at levels not seen in 15 years. Record volumes of old rice and wheat stocks are entering feed mills and deep processing plants as substitutes for high-priced corn. Industry members forecast the corn supply-demand situation will not change until late calendar year 2021 or 2022 at the earliest. . Sugar production in MY21/22 (Oct-Sep) is forecast to marginally grow to 10.6 million metric tons as rising cane sugar production is expected to offset lower beet sugar production. Some sugar beet farmers are reportedly switching to corn because of strong corn prices and rising land rent costs. With the removal of the additional safeguard on imported sugar and the expectation that sugar consumption will rebound to pre-COVID levels, sugar imports are forecast to climb to at least 5.0 million metric tons in MY21/22. Meantime, the government made changes to its 2021 tariff schedule to better monitor the growing volume of sugar syrup imports from southeast Asia.
European Union: Grain and Feed Annual In MY2021/22, total EU grain production is anticipated to rebound nearly 7 MMT to 286 MMT. After persistent drought last season, yields in the main producing European Union (EU) Member States are expected to return to average levels. Favorable planting and overwintering conditions signal prospects for a sizeable crop in MY2021/22. Final yields will depend on the incidence of late frosts and the pattern of spring precipitations. For the rest of MY2020/21 and for MY2021/22, the crop outlook of European corn suppliers and competition from other large wheat exporting countries will determine EU's grain trade flows. The status of COVID-19 restrictions, and the state of animal health in the EU and in key export markets will drive EU's grain demand.
Sugar beet production and planting area is forecast at 19.5 million metric tons (MMT) and 320,000 hectares (ha) in MY 2021/22, assuming favorable growing conditions. The quotas for MY 2021/22 were announced on March 20, 2021 by a presidential decree as 2.7 MMT for sugar beets and 67,500 MT for starch based sugar. This amount is identical to the previous two years. Turkey lifted the restriction on refined sugar exports as of December 2020.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.
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